Introduction
Covid-19 not managed with equal dexterity globally. Some recognised the challenges at an earlier stage than others.
A pandemic – example of a complex problem.
Complex problems – multiple interacting factors, many unidentified and, or unmeasurable, embody considerable uncertainty and unpredictable outcomes.
Failure to appreciate complexity – unsatisfactory, simplistic solutions, repetition of errors and loss of public trust.
Additionally, important concepts required to understand the pandemic were not appreciated, not only by the public, but also by politicians and the media, one example is that of the exponential. This leads to public misconceptions and further erosion of trust.
The key challenges, their consequences and subsequent opportunities relate to three broad areas and their interrelationships:
Background
• Key Challenges:
o Complex problems:
§ Multiple factors interact in a non- linear, non-hierarchical manner, no simple chain of causality.
§ Small changes to a single factor – unexpected but significant changes in outcomes.
§ Initial challenge – identify and accept that a situation is complex.
o Uncertainty:
§ Hallmark of complexity.
§ Discomfort with uncertainty, Bertrand Russell – ‘The demand for certainty is one which is natural to man, but is nevertheless an intellectual vice’…
o Communication:
§ Communicating these concepts and associated risk between super-specialists, policy makers and the public.
• Consequences:
o Complexity:
§ Delay in identifying and accepting complexity – the journalist, H. L. Mencken pithily remarked …‘For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong’…
§ Essential – obsessively trawl and evaluate breadth of information. E.g. experience with SARS and MERS offered important clues.
§ Input from super-specialists – invaluable but characterised by siloed assumptions, method, and language.
§ Multiple potential interpretations of data – choose the least wrong.
§ Requires constant reappraisal of accumulating evidence and iterations of strategy.
§ ‘Science’ merely illuminates, it does not lead and cannot be followed.
o Uncertainty:
§ ‘Common sense’ – simplistic solutions e.g., handwashing for what was always likely to be, principally, a respiratory transmitted virus.
§ Repetition of mistakes, Einstein – …’The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results’.
§ Range of potential ‘solutions’ – decision-makers to choose between ‘apples and pears’ …the least bad option.
o Communication:
§ Lack of certainty and apparent indecision can give the impression of incompetence.
§ Loss of trust.
• Opportunities:
o Education:
§ Review the entire educational system.
§ Propose breadth and critical thinking component throughout.
o Training – Government, public bodies, and media:
§ Identification and management of complex problems and uncertainty.
§ Approach – obsessive evidence trawl
§ Cycle of review of evidence and strategy.
§ Overview of super-specialists
• Problem-solving styles and cognitive bias.
§ Communication.
o Application of approach to other complex issues could include.
§ E.g. Public health and social care.
§ The future of town centres.
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