Human nature, unfortunately, tends to let fresh projects push older priorities into the background particularly when the original impetus has faded from current memories. Past predictable crises have covered a much broader range than just pandemics. Collectively, we knew we should have learned from Spanish flu and the more recent outbreaks of SARS, MERS and ebola. In the years following World War II, the UK was concerned about being self sufficient in growing basic foodstuff; today we import 80% and rely totally on what we now see to be fragile supply chains.
Post-Brexit, we can no longer necessarily rely on the EU for key supplies. Just like Covid, there are many likely, predictable scenarios with a high chance of occurring at some point – very infrequent but with catastrophic consequences. These include solar storms (no GPS, failure of national electricity grid), potential consequences of global warming (freak floods), overdue volcanic activity (tsunami, weather change, aeroplanes grounded) quite apart from the more obviously conceivable attacks on internet availability, terrorist activity and now a better appreciation of pandemic hazards.
A proposed pro-active response would be to set up a new committee or body to
• identify critically important needs of the UK, anticipating and pre-empting potential catastrophe situations which call for self sufficiency within the UK
• identify solutions, including whether multiple sources will be needed. Set timeframes • monitor implementation and timeframe achievement
• regularly review priorities and gap filling
• regularly review needs, refreshing requirements in the light of developments in society and technology
This will need a small focussed (and regularly renewed) board so that its raison d’etre is not dissipated. In parallel, a framework of incentives and protections needs to be created and then adapted to ensure effectiveness. Protection should include appropriate legislation and oversight in the event of corporate takeover, insolvency and monopoly control. There also needs to be an external, regular and independent review mechanism to flag loss of focus or drift over time – perhaps an annual parliamentary scrutiny.
There are huge opportunities across a range of industries for Britain in a post-Covid mindset, both in the immediate term and in providing resilience if any of the foreseen crises do take place.
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