It could be argued that the British high street is not in a state of decline, as reported in recent years, but in a state of transition. Whatever your view, the fact remains that high streets are changing and have declined in terms of number of shops, opportunities for employment, and as a space for the local community to gather, innovate and thrive.
The extended period of lockdown has moved commuters back to where they live. It has also created a sense of community that has been lost in many places, particularly in large urban areas. My London street now has its own sense of community and WhatsApp group to help stay connected! This was unheard of pre-lockdown.
I think there is a way to help restore high streets and, in turn, increase the connectedness of local communities and help the economy ‘level-up’.
The lockdown has shown that many people can work from home. As we move out of lockdown it is uncertain whether there will be a rush back to the office as before, but many studies and surveys suggest that people work location will change as a result of the lockdown. A recent YouGov survey found that 57% of those asked want to be able to continue working from home after lockdown ends. This includes 18% who want to be able to work from home the whole time, and 39% who want to be able to work from home some of the time.
PWC’s 2021 UK Economic Outlook reported that “Covid-19 has fundamentally changed the way we view cities” and predicted that London’s population would decline for the first time in the 21st century. So the question is: how can capitalise on these changes?
Put simply, government should provide small grants for businesses that have fed off the transient commuter communities in London and other big urban centres, and move them to areas where people are living. Coffee stands, dentists, opticians, restaurants, markets, all manner of retail and services could move to areas of dense population. Coupled with support for high street rents and business rates*, this could revitalise the high street, help businesses who have lost their custom because geography and work has changed, and provide a space for nurturing this new found sense of community through the UK.
As a first step I would like to collaborate with relevant local and national government agencies to estimate the number of businesses in the UK’s main urban centres that are dependent on commuters, whether a micro-business Burrito stand, or Pret-a-Manger. A recent KPMG analysis suggests more than 400,000 jobs could be cut on UK high streets as consumers continue to shop online and commuters shift permanently to working from home much of the time, according to research.
Even with a liberal take on the number of businesses affected, small grants of around £10,000 to help restore high streets and communities would be good value for money. Compare this to the Bounce Back Loans which recently the National Audit Office (NAO) said taxpayers could lose as much as £26bn, from fraud, organised crime or default. That would be equivalent to a £10,000 loan for 2.6 million businesses.
* Bills have risen steeply in recent years partly because the 2015 revaluation of property values was delayed until 2017. The multiplier has also risen from 34.8p in the pound in 1990 to more than 50p for stores paying more than £51,000 in rent. The letter proposes that the multiplier is reduced to its original level.
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